Uzbekistan, a Central Asian country, is attracting attention as an emerging economic powerhouse. Its economy is rapidly growing, and its large population is young and dynamic. The government’s commitment to market reforms has, in recent years, attracted international investors in recent years.
The Big Picture
Uzbekistan's economy is growing rapidly and, at the same time, diversifying away from the traditional textiles and natural resources industries.
The 6% real GDP growth in 2023 and 5-6% expected in the coming years is a significant achievement.
Despite gradually easing, inflation remains high, causing elevated interest rate burden for consumers and businesses. Although fiscal deficits are moderate, the current account deficit is large, financed by FDI, external borrowing, and gold exports.
Public debt is low, and the currency is stable. The banking sector is extensive compared to the overall economy, with credit to the private sector expanding rapidly.
Growth and Economic Structure
Uzbekistan’s economy has experienced rapid growth, with real GDP increasing by 6% in 2023, primarily due to increased investment and private consumption.
Continued economic growth will support continued credit expansion.
The government’s ongoing market reforms and privatisation efforts are expected to keep growth robust around 5–6% in the coming years.
Uzbekistan’s economy is diversifying but still heavily based on commodities (natural gas, gold, cotton) and services. Reliance on commodities exposes it to external shocks but also means there is a substantial upside if reforms succeed in developing industries and SMEs.
The credit-to-GDP ratio has risen in recent years as financial deepening occurs – private sector credit is about 34–39% of GDP, up from barely 20% a decade ago. A relatively low share of credit indicates significant room for further credit growth.
Table 1: Core Macroeconomic Indicators (2020–2025), source: World Bank, ITA, Focus Economics
Inflation and Monetary Policy
Inflation in Uzbekistan remains elevated but on a downward trend. Headline inflation was around 10–12% in 2022, then eased to 8–10% in 2023–2024. Energy tariff hikes and supply factors have fueled price pressures, but tight monetary policy (the Central Bank’s rate is kept high in real terms) has helped contain inflation. The CBU’s inflation target is 5%, which it hopes to achieve by 2025–2027.
High inflation has resulted in high nominal interest rates: the central bank policy rate is in the low teens, and average bank lending rates are in the 20–24% range, with NBFI rates even higher. Monetary conditions thus remain relatively tight.
Fiscal and External Balance
Uzbekistan runs moderate fiscal deficits (the government invests in reforms and social support) and a large current account deficit, ~8.6% of GDP in 2023. The current account gap is mainly due to a surge in imports for infrastructure and investment, plus a decline in remittances from Russia in 2023. FDI, external borrowing, and gold exports have financed it.
International reserves are healthy, covering about 9 months of imports, providing a buffer for the currency. Public debt is around 35% of GDP, relatively low, and external debt is primarily long-term. The Uzbekistani som was allowed to float in 2017; since then, it has seen periods of depreciation but has been relatively stable recently, supported by central bank interventions and gold sales.
Table 2: Trade and External Indicators (2020–2023), source: World Bank, ITA, Focus Economics
Nevertheless, exchange rate risks are significant. Any shock to export or remittance inflows could weaken the domestic currency, SOM, affecting foreign currency obligations. As of early 2025, SOM has remained within a manageable band, helping maintain borrower debt service capacity.
Table 3: Fiscal and Monetary Indicators (2020–2023), source: World Bank, ITA, Focus Economics, IMF
Banking and Credit Environment
Uzbekistan’s banking sector is extensive, with assets over half of GDP and dominated by state-owned banks, which have been undergoing reforms.
Non-performing loans in banks are low to mid-single digits, partially due to rapid credit growth and some regulatory forbearance.
Credit to the private sector has been expanding fast, 20%+ annually in recent years, supported by directed lending programs and the entry of new private banks.
For NBFIs, the macro environment means high borrowing costs and lending yields. The overall credit-to-GDP (38.8%) is still below developed economies, suggesting an upside as the economy develops. One metric, the credit-to-GDP gap, has been positive in recent years as credit expansion outpaced the trend, which the central bank monitors for overheating risks.
Table 4: Private Credit to GDP (%) – Uzbekistan, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, and G7 Average (2019–2023), source: World Bank, IMF, NBK, BIS, OECD
Outlook
Uzbekistan’s macro outlook is positive but not without risks. Growth is expected to remain around 5–6% soon, supported by domestic demand and investment. If structural reforms continue - bank privatisations, energy sector reform, and WTO accession efforts, they could boost productivity and foreign investment, benefiting the financial sector.
Inflation is projected to gradually decline to single digits (around 9% in 2025, approaching the 5% target by 2027), assuming prudent fiscal and monetary policies.
Key risks include external ones – global commodity price swings (significant for Uzbek exports of gold and gas), a sharper slowdown in major trading partners (Russia, China), or tightening global financial conditions affecting Uzbekistan’s external financing—domestic risks centre on the reform pace.
Delays or reversals could hurt investor confidence and growth. Upside scenarios involve faster-than-expected reform payoffs, higher commodity export prices, or successful attraction of foreign investment into new sectors.
For NBFIs and private credit investors, the macro environment in Uzbekistan offers strong growth and improving stability, but caution is warranted regarding inflation and currency volatility.
Role of NBFIs in the Credit Market
NBFIs play a growing but still modest role in Uzbekistan’s credit market. Commercial banks – giant state-owned banks – dominate lending, whereas NBFIs such as microcredit organisations, credit unions, and pawnshops cater to underserved segments like low-income individuals and small businesses.
Share of NBFIs in the finance sector of Uzbekistan
As of early 2024, Uzbekistan had 86 microfinance organisations and 88 pawnshops alongside 36 banks.
The number of NBFIs has more than doubled since 2018, reflecting regulatory encouragement and rising demand. NBFIs contribute to consumer lending by providing small, short-term loans often unavailable from banks.
They also support SME financing at the micro and small enterprise level through micro-loans and leasing. However, their share of total credit remains very low – less than 0.5% of all loans in Uzbekistan.
In absolute terms, the loan portfolio of non-bank credit organisations nearly doubled from UZS 4.24 trillion to 8.05 trillion in 2023.
As the absolute loan portfolio nearly doubled, NBFIs’ share of overall financial system assets rose from about 1% to 1.7% over the year.
Growth of the NBFI sector in Uzbekistan
NBFIs have been particularly instrumental in consumer finance, e.g., providing personal microloans for household needs and financing micro-entrepreneurs who lack collateral for bank loans.
By offering more flexible lending (quick approval, smaller amounts, unconventional collateral like jewellery in pawnshops), NBFIs fill gaps left by mainstream banks. Still, the scale is small: for context, as of 2024, the top 10 microfinance organisations held about 75% of the sector’s assets, indicating a fragmented market.
Uzbekistan’s NBFI sector is poised to expand further as regulatory reforms take hold and investor interest grows.
Regulatory Framework
Uzbekistan is overhauling regulations to enable the growth of non-bank financial institutions under central bank supervision and gradually introducing consumer protection measures.
Supervision of NBFIs in Uzbekistan
In March 2022, the government approved the Law “On Non-Banking Credit Organizations and Microfinance Activities,” which established the procedures for licensing and operating NBFIs. This law defines permitted activities and consumer rights and sets up a dedicated system of regulation and supervision for NBFIs.
The Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU) is the primary supervisory authority overseeing NBFIs, including microfinance organisations and pawnshops. Under the law, NBFIs are prohibited from taking retail deposits, which distinguishes them from banks.
Licensing requirements for NBFIs include minimum capital standards and fit-and-proper tests for owners to ensure only credible providers enter the market.
Interest rate regulation in Uzbekistan
There are no statutory caps on interest rates for microloans in Uzbekistan.
The absence of any ceiling allows domestic microfinance institutions (MFIs) to charge relatively high rates (often 4–7% per month) based on market demand. This policy intends to expand credit access even at high cost, though it raises consumer protection concerns.
In recent years, the government has also issued presidential decrees to encourage microfinance; for example, a 2019 decree expanded the range of services NBFIs can offer and promoted microfinance outreach.
Key Risks & Opportunities
The Uzbek NBFI sector carries less regulatory risk after enacting the 2022, but macro risks prevail. At the same time, the market presents investment opportunities due to its large, growing economy and relatively underserved credit market.
Regulatory Risks
As a newly reformed sector, Uzbek NBFIs face regulatory uncertainty. The implementation of the 2022 laws is still in progress. The law does not mention specifics like NBFIs’ capital adequacy ratios. Thus, any changes in licensing criteria or capital requirements could affect newcomers and existing players.
The CBU’s limited supervisory experience with NBFIs poses the risk of gaps in oversight. Consumer protection is a concern as interest rate caps have not been proposed, and the economy has relatively high interest rates. Therefore, borrowers may be vulnerable to debt stress, especially if inflation targets are not met.
The government could impose new interest limits or stricter lending rules, squeezing NBFI margins. NBFIs' deposit-taking is limited, so they rely on shareholder funding and institutional loans, both of which are prone to create a liquidity crunch should economic conditions worsen.
Macroeconomic Risks
Uzbekistan’s macro environment is characterised by double-digit inflation and a large current account deficit. Both factors indirectly pose risks to NBFIs through affordability and currency deppreciation.
High inflation, about 10% in 2024, raises operational costs and can erode borrowers’ repayment capacity if incomes lag behind prices.
Currency volatility is a notable risk – the Uzbekistani som was liberalised in 2017. While relatively stable recently, any sharp devaluation would raise the cost of any NBFI funding in foreign currency and could impair clients with unhedged dollar loans.
Additionally, macroeconomic shocks, e.g. a downturn in Russia affecting remittances or lower commodity export prices, could increase credit defaults in the NBFI segment, as many customers have informal or vulnerable income sources.
Credit and Portfolio Risks
Rapid growth in microcredit portfolios, nearly 100% in the past year, can strain NBFIs’ risk management. Many Uzbek NBFI borrowers have thin credit histories and limited collateral, making credit risk inherently high.
Portfolio concentration is significant since the top few MFIs dominate the market – a failure of a major player could undermine sector confidence. Moreover, NBFI loan books are heavily tilted toward consumer loans, which are unsecured and prone to delinquency if economic conditions worsen.
That said, current non-performing loan (NPL) levels in NBFIs are not widely reported; the banking sector NPLs are around 4–5%, and NBFIs likely have higher NPL ratios given their riskier clientele.
Opportunities
Despite the risks, Uzbekistan’s NBFI sector offers substantial growth potential. There is a strong unmet demand for credit among individuals and micro-businesses, as evidenced by consistently high microloan demand, even at “almost loan shark” interest rates.
With a population of over 35 million and only ~44% of adults with bank accounts, Uzbekistan is underbanked, allowing NBFIs to expand outreach and financial inclusion.
The government’s reform agenda is an opportunity: authorities are committed to fostering private sector credit, as shown by initiatives to promote microfinance services. International development institutions (World Bank, IFC, ADB) also support Uzbekistan’s financial inclusion, which could mean funding lines or technical assistance for NBFIs.
For investors, Uzbekistan’s NBFIs present a chance to tap into high-yield lending. Interest spreads are wide – policy rates are around 15%, and NBFI lending rates can exceed 30-40% annually, promising attractive returns if risks are managed.
The sector’s low base also means double-digit growth can persist for years. As Uzbekistan continues privatising and modernising its financial sector, NBFIs could partner with banks or be acquired by them, providing exit opportunities for early investors.
Comparative Analysis (Uzbekistan vs. Mongolia vs. Kazakhstan)
Uzbekistan’s NBFI sector is in early growth with high potential, limited current impact, and relatively flexible (but evolving) regulation.
Mongolia’s NBFI sector is more mature in outreach and innovation and significantly contributes to consumer credit, but now faces more significant regulatory curbs to ensure stability.
Kazakhstan’s NBFI sector is well-regulated and integrated into the financial system; however, it plays a niche role in microcredit and leasing relative to the banking sector.
Each country represents a different mix of market size, growth, regulation, and risk for private credit investment.
Below is a comparative table of key 2023 macroeconomic indicators for Uzbekistan, Mongolia, and Kazakhstan.
Table 5: Macroeconomic indicators—Uzbekistan, Mongolia, Kazakhstan (2023), source: World Bank. Note: Estimated/provisional values for 2023 are marked with an asterisk.
Market Size and Depth
Uzbekistan’s NBFI market is nascent relative to its economy compared to Mongolia’s and Kazakhstan’s. NBFI loans in Uzbekistan are less than 2% of the total financial system credit.
In contrast, Mongolia’s NBFIs account for an estimated ~10% of outstanding loans, and Kazakhstan’s around 2–3% (microfinance ~ KZT 880 billion out of a much larger banking sector).
This difference partly reflects each country’s overall credit depth: domestic private credit is about 35% of GDP in Uzbekistan, roughly 39% of GDP in Mongolia, but only about 24% of GDP in Kazakhstan (where banks historically pulled back after crises).
Thus, while more minor, Mongolia’s financial system has allowed NBFIs to proliferate more freely. In contrast, Kazakhstan is bank-dominated and tightly regulated, and Uzbekistan is only beginning to diversify beyond banks.
Population and geography also play a role: Uzbekistan’s large population offers an enormous potential client base for NBFIs, but outreach is still limited; Mongolia’s sparse population has driven innovative microfinance (e.g. group lending in rural areas), and Kazakhstan’s higher urbanisation means banks cover more of the market, leaving NBFIs a narrower niche.
Lending Rates and Policies
Uzbekistan traditionally imposed fewer controls on NBFI lending rates – as noted, there are no interest caps on microloans.
Mongolian and Kazakh regulators have been more interventionist on this front. Mongolia recently set a cap of 4.5% per month (approximately 54% APR) on non-bank consumer loans and pawnshop lending under the 2022 Law on Regulation of Money Loan Activities. This cap aims to curb usurious rates that have plagued the market.
Kazakhstan has long-enforced interest rate limits: the maximum annual effective interest rate (AEIR) for loans (bank or microfinance) is 56% by law, and authorities move it downward – for instance, short-term payday loans (<=45 days) have been capped at around 30% APR since 2020.
Additionally, Kazakhstan requires lenders to observe a 50% debt-to-income limit for borrowers (meaning monthly loan payments cannot exceed half of income), a rule since 2014 to prevent over-indebtedness.
Mongolia recently introduced a similar debt-to-income (DTI) limit of 70% for borrowers of digital loans.
Uzbekistan has not yet implemented formal DTI caps for NBFIs, though introducing such macroprudential rules would align it with neighbours.
These policy differences make Uzbekistan’s regulatory environment more flexible for NBFIs regarding pricing and credit risk-taking, while Mongolia and Kazakhstan impose more constraints to protect consumers.
Regulatory Framework & Investor-Friendliness
All three countries have separate regulatory regimes for NBFIs, but the strictness and development vary.
Kazakhstan is generally seen as the most investor-friendly in terms of stability – it has a dedicated Agency for Regulation and Development of Financial Markets (ARDFM) overseeing NBFIs and more explicit rules for foreign investment. Kazakhstan has even allowed a few NBFIs to raise capital via bond markets and stock exchange listings (for example, several microfinance companies have credit ratings and issue bonds domestically). Its legal system for financial contracts is relatively mature.
Mongolia’s Financial Regulatory Commission (FRC) oversees NBFIs. It has permitted many entrants (500+ NBFIs) with low barriers, which indicates openness, though perhaps at the cost of market fragmentation. Foreign investors are present in Mongolia’s NBFI sector (some larger NBFIs have international shareholders or funding from development finance institutions). Still, the market’s small size and volatility can be a deterrent.
Uzbekistan, until recently, had the most restrictive climate – foreign investment in financial services was limited and state-dominated banking. Times are changing. The new NBFI law 2022 and broader financial reforms are signals of increased openness. However, compared to Mongolia and Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan is still developing essential regulatory capacities (e.g., training CBU supervisors for microfinance oversight) and has fewer established private credit institutions.
In terms of investor protections, Kazakhstan likely leads (with more robust legal enforcement and credit information systems), followed by Mongolia (which has functioning courts but faces corruption issues), and then Uzbekistan (which is improving legal frameworks, but investors may perceive higher political/regulatory risk).
Each country also has unique factors: Uzbekistan’s market size and growth prospects are attractive but come with transition economy risks; Mongolia’s familiarity with microfinance and high margins are appealing but tempered by economic swings; Kazakhstan offers scale and relative stability but lower margins; and stricter controls in consumer finance.
Market Characteristics and Flexibility
The three markets also differ in the typical profile of NBFIs and the flexibility of their operations.
In Uzbekistan, NBFIs are mostly microcredit organisations and pawnshops focusing on micro-loans, with operations often concentrated in urban centres. They are just beginning to diversify products (e.g., some may explore Islamic microfinance or leasing).
In Mongolia, NBFIs range from small family-run lenders to large publicly listed companies; many specialise in quick, unsecured consumer loans, while others provide leasing, SME loans, or quasi-banking services (within limits). Mongolian NBFIs have quickly adopted digital lending platforms, allowing them to serve far-flung rural clients via mobile apps – nearly 37 NBFIs will offer digital loans by 2022.
Kazakhstan’s NBFIs include microfinance organisations (some evolved from NGO microcredit programs), finance companies affiliated with banks or retailers, pawnshops, and leasing firms (particularly auto and equipment leasing). Kazakhstan’s NBFIs tend to be a bit larger on average and often part of larger financial groups. They benefit from the country's reasonably advanced credit bureau system and fintech ecosystem.
Regarding lending rates and flexibility, Uzbek NBFIs currently have the most leeway to set rates freely, new caps now constrain Mongolian NBFIs, and Kazakh NBFIs operate under moderate interest rate caps and close monitoring of respective regulatory bodies.
All three countries recognise NBFIs as necessary for inclusion. Still, Uzbekistan’s policy is in a formative stage, Mongolia’s regulator is catching up to mitigate the consequences of a previously freewheeling market, and Kazakhstan’s is tightening to address personal debt issues.
Conclusion
Thanks to the fast-growing economy and ongoing pro-business reforms, Uzbekistan presents a compelling landscape for NBFIs and private credit investment. While the country is not without risks, the macro environment suggests substantial growth potential driven by increasing demand for credit among individuals and micro-businesses. Regulatory reforms are underway, although regulatory uncertainty and evolving consumer protection measures remain key considerations.
Compared to its Central Asian peers, Uzbekistan's NBFI sector is still in its early days but holds a promise thanks to its large population and unsaturated credit market. While Mongolia's NBFI sector is more mature and Kazakhstan's has a longer history of regulation and integration into the real economy, Uzbekistan offers a unique of positive factors. However, Uzbekistan’s potential comes with inherent risks, including regulatory changes, currency volatility, and credit risks associated with the growing private credit share of GDP.
Successful investing in the Uzbekistani NBFI sector requires a nuanced understanding of the regulatory landscape, macroeconomic dynamics, and the specific needs of the underbanked segments of the market. For investors, this encompasses careful risk management and strategic alignment with government reforms, especially incorporating financial inclusion and responsible lending practices into investment considerations.
Uzbekistan continues its journey towards a more diversified and hopefully inclusive financial sector. The role of NBFIs will become increasingly prominent, presenting both challenges and opportunities.
About Kilde
Kilde is a regulated investment platform that helps accredited investors earn reliable monthly passive income through high-yield, asset-backed loans. We’re trusted by individual and institutional investors alike and are committed to delivering exceptional results with the support of a friendly, knowledgeable team.
Kilde follows a disciplined credit strategy to ensure stable, risk-adjusted returns for investors. Our investments typically have a maturity of 3 to 36 months, allowing for medium-term capital deployment while maintaining liquidity.
By focusing on senior-secured, asset-backed loans, we prioritize safety without compromising on yield. Kilde deals only with licensed non-banking financial institutions (NBFIs) that have a solid track record of management and strong financial performance. Each borrower is rigorously vetted using Kilde’s proprietary credit scoring model, ensuring that only the most reliable and well-managed companies receive funding.
To enhance flexibility for investors, Kilde offers an early redemption option in select deals, typically on a rolling 3-month cycle. This feature allows investors to exit their positions at predefined intervals, providing liquidity while ensuring that the portfolio remains structured and stable. The redemption process is carefully managed to balance investor liquidity needs with the integrity of the underlying loan portfolio, ensuring that repayments align with the cash flow of the borrowers’ receivables. Our proven lending strategy ensures that even with early redemptions, investments remain secure and cash flows are predictable.
A key element of Kilde’s credit strategy is the implementation of strict financial covenants to protect investor capital. These include limits on leverage ratios, interest coverage, and repayment rates, ensuring that borrowers maintain financial discipline throughout the loan tenure.
Continuous monitoring of financial statements and borrower performance helps mitigate risk, while structured loan agreements under Singapore law provide a strong legal framework for enforcement. By working only with licensed NBFIs that follow responsible lending practices, Kilde ensures high-quality deal flow with strong downside protection for investors.
References:
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